Modeling the rally event in presidential politics: Toward conceptual and methodological clarity

This research provides conceptual clarity both to the modeling of rally events in presidential politics by introducing the stimulus-cognitive response model and to the measurement of rally events by presenting the steps necessary for proper specification and empirical analysis using the time-series method. The utility of stimulus-cognitive response modeling in conjunction with time-series is demonstrated by an examination of the attempted assassination of President Ronald Reagan. Several of the specific findings are counterintuitive and have implications for the presidency-congress literature.