基于羊群效应的投资趋同化研究

针对近年来中国企业投资项目日益趋同化的经济现象,以羊群行为为视角,运用博弈论和贝叶斯法则,剖析其深层次原因.将管理学中的期望理论运用到投资领域,企业投资激励力由利润和期望值共同决定.经济繁荣时期,企业家乐观情绪蔓延,激励力由利润决定,企业家乐于投资不同项目来追求高利润,此时没有羊群行为发生；萧条时期,悲观情绪传染,激励力由期望值决定,企业家投资项目日趋相同,羊群行为发生.为预防投资项目趋同化的羊群行为发生,企业家应调整急功近利心态,政府应建立鼓励企业投资创新的宏观激励机制.

Study of the Convergence of Investment Projects Based on the Theory of Herding Behavior

With the convergence of investment projects in China,this paper applies the game theory and the Bayes’ Method to the analysis of the deep causes from the perspective of herding behavior.Prospect theory of management science is introduced into investment field and it is considered that the incentive of investment is decided by profit and expected value.The theoretical model study results indicate that the entrepreneur’s incentive of investment is decided by profit in economic prosperity period as optimistic emotion spreading,and entrepreneurs will invest different projects for pursuit of high profits,and there is not any herding behavior.But in depression period,the entrepreneur’s incentive of investment is decided by expected value as gloomy mood spreading,and entrepreneurs will invest same projects,and there will be herding behaviors.Thus,for prevention herding behavior from happening,the entrepreneur’s mentality for quick profits should be adjusted,and incentive mechanism for encouraging innovation should be established.