农民工回流规模控制探讨——以人口变动对农民工回流影响的分析为中心

人口变动对农民工回流影响的理论分析与实证分析表明:人口数量增速放缓,引发经济增长方式变革,对农民工文化素质提出更高要求,但农民工文化素质提升缓慢,与经济发展要求不完全匹配,规模与文化素质共同作用引发农民工回流；年龄结构老化,通过抬升农村老龄化水平、农民工平均年龄与在婚比例引发回流.为保持适度的农民工回流规模,人口变动对农民工回流影响的作用机制要求在人口管理中维持现行生育政策、提高农村人口文化素质与增加、完善农村养老设施.

On the Scale Control of Migrant Workers’ Return: Focus on the Influence of Population Size’s Changes

Both the theoretical and empirical analysis of the influence of population size’s changes show that the slow growth rate of population size results in the changes of economic growth pattern,thus it has put higher demands for migrant workers;cultural quality.However,the upgrading of migrant workers’ cultural quality does not correspond with the demands of the economic development.The joint efforts between economic scale and the cultural quality lead to the migrant workers’ return,the aged structure,the upgraded rural aged level,the average migrant workers’ age and their marriage ratio also lead to the migrant workers’ return.In order to keep the appropriate scale of migrant workers’ return,the working mechanism of the influence of the population size’s changes on the migrant workers’ return demands that the population management should maintain the existing birth policy,improve the cultural quality of rural population,increase and perfect facilities for the elderly in rural areas.