重新认识福格尔关于铁路与经济增长关系理论

随着铁路技术的不断发展,高速铁路、磁浮铁路等新的铁路运输方式以其快速、大运量、环保的优势逐渐在经济生活中起着越来越重要的作用,铁路与经济增长的关系也需要重要审视。首先回顾了传统经济史学对于美国铁路与经济增长的认识,并分析和评论了美国经济学家福格尔关于铁路对于19世纪美国经济增长并非绝对必要的理论。分析认为,福格尔运用历史数据经验性地分析了铁路与经济增长之间的关系,为经济学史的研究开辟了一个新的思路,但他忽视了铁路与经济增长的复杂关系,用简单的数学模型难以完全揭示铁路在经济增长中的作用。最后,从铁路运输的经济特点出发简要分析了如何看待中国铁路与经济增长的关系。

New understanding of Fogel's theory on the relationship between American railway and economic growth

With the technological development, of railway and other advancements such as express railway, magnetic suspension train and new transportation means, the railway is also characterized by its rapid, speed, vast amounts and good environmented protection. Faced with this new role in the economic growth, it is necessary to reexamine the role of railway now. The paper firstly reviews the understanding of the United States railway and economic growth by the traditional economic historian, and then analyzes the American economist Fogel＇s Theory on the railway. It is believed that the railway then was not absolutely necessary for economic growth of the United States in the 19th century. The authors think that Fogel explained the relationship between railway and economic growth by the means of empirical analysis with historical data and created a new way of studying history of economies, but he ignored the complexity of the problem and his simple mathematical model cannot completely reveal the role of railway in economic growth. In the end, some viewpoints about how to understand the relationship between railway and economic growth in China is put forward.