中国农村公共支出及其绩效分析——基于农民收入增长和城乡收入差距的经验研究

本文运用1978～2004年的数据,采用多变量回归和Granger因果检验方法对农村公共支出、农民收入增长以及城乡收入差距之间的关系进行实证研究。结果显示,国家财政的农村支出对农民收入增长起到了一定的促进作用,但由于公共支出的管理、运用效率低下,其作用在统计上并不十分显著;从支出结构看,与农业生产直接相关的生产性支出和基本建设支出占比过高,而农业科研和社会福利等方面的支出过低,而且,由于政府重视程度不够和目标偏差,使得政府公共支出在降低城乡收入差距上的作用不甚明显,从而限制了政府增进社会福利功能的发挥,进而不利于公平增长的实现。在此基础上,本文进一步讨论了如何改变农村公共支出结构以及如何将公共支出政策与农村金融政策相结合等问题。

An Analysis of China's Expenditure in Rural Areas and of the Performance thereof

By the use of the data of 1978 to 2004, by means of multivariable regression and adopting the method of Granger's causal test, we have made a case study of the relationship between rural public expenditure, peasants' income growth and the gap in income between town and country. Our study demonstrates that the state fiscal expenditure on villages has, to some degree, fueled the growth of peasants' income but the function of the said expenditure is not, statistically, quite obvious owing to the low efficiency of management and use of public expenditure; that, structurally, the proportion of expenditure on agriculture-production-directly-related production and that on fundamental construction have been too high, but the expenditure for research on agriculture and social welfare and other factors (ROAASWAOF) has been tow low; and that no enough importance given to ROAASWAOF by the government on the one hand and the deviation in target on the other have caused the unobviousness of the role of narrowing the income gap between town and countryside played by the government public expenditure, and thus have restricted the play of the function of the government in increasing social welfare, harming the realization of fair growth. On this basis, this article further discusses some problems, such as how to change the structure of rural public expenditure and how to combine the public expenditure policy with rural financial policy.