基于需求信息更新和短缺量延期供给的易逝品供应链期权契约研究

为了降低供给与需求的不匹配,引入期权契约讨论三阶段生产和订购策略:零售商在第1阶段发出固定订单;然后在第1阶段和第2阶段之间更新需求预测,并在第2阶段调整固定订购量同时购买期权;第3阶段满足市场需求,对销售季末短缺量以执行期权和紧急订购相结合的方式实行延期供给。契约参数包含期权购买价格、执行价格和延期供给对应的批发价,三者线性相关;期权契约下,制造商不存在投机动力。根据易逝品的特征,对生产和订购模型进行仿真计算和分析,结果表明:供应链及其成员的利润都得到帕累托改进,系统利润增量的分配随期权购买价格发生变化。

Option Contracts for Perishable Commodities with Forecast Updating and Shortage Delivery Postponed

In order to reduce the mismatch between supply and demand,this paper builds a three-stage production and ordering mode to discuss supply chain coordination mechanisms with options.At the first stage,the retailer makes decisions on fixed order,and then at the second stage,which begins with demand forecast updating,the retailer makes adjustment to it and buy some options at the meanwhile.In the third stage,the demand will be realized;if there is shortage,it will be satisfied first through exercising option contract and second by invoking an urgent order but with delivery postponed.The option contracts consist of an option price,an exercise price,and a wholesale price under postponed shortage delivery,and the three are linearly correlated;the manufacturer has no motive to speculate under the option contracts.We take perishable commodities as an example to simulate the production-ordering mode with option contracts,and find that the profits of the system and the two members have got Pareto improvement under the contracts and the proportions of extra system profit between them varies with the option price.