| 生育率最优路径、劳动力供给转型与经济增长 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈仲常,马红旗.生育率最优路径、劳动力供给转型与经济增长[J].人口与经济,2011(6). |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈仲常 马红旗 |
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| 作者单位： | 重庆大学贸易与行政学院;重庆大学经济与工商管理学院; |
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| 摘 要： | 通过内生化劳动力和人力资本,以Q-Q理论为基础,根据生育率在劳动力供给和人力资本积累中的联动关系以及劳动力供给转型规律,利用动态最优控制原理,解释了殖民解放以来发展中国家先上升后下降的人口再生产过程及经济效应。结果表明:生育率的最优路径呈倒U型;整个路径存在两个鞍点均衡,只有当人力资本积累跨越某个门槛值时,第一个鞍点均衡才能过渡到另一个鞍点均衡;均衡的产出水平与劳动力折旧率成正比,与人力资本折旧率成反比。
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| 关 键 词： | 生育率 劳动力供给 人力资本积累 经济增长 |
Fertility Rate Optimal Path,Labor Supply Transition and Economic Growth |
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| Chen Zhong-chang,Ma Hong-qi.Fertility Rate Optimal Path,Labor Supply Transition and Economic Growth[J].Population & Economics,2011(6). |
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| Authors: | Chen Zhong-chang Ma Hong-qi |
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| Institution: | Chen Zhong-chang1,Ma Hong-qi2(1.College of Trade and Public Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044,China,2.College of Economic and Business Administration,China) |
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| Abstract: | In this paper,through endogenous labor and human capital,based on Becker's Q-Q theory,according to fertility rate in the joint relations of labor supply and human capital accumulation and the transformation law of labor supply,and use of dynamic optimal control theory,it explains developing countries increased and then decreased in the country's population reproduction process and economic effects since the colonial liberation.The results showed: the optimal path of fertility rate inverted U type;this path ... |
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| Keywords: | fertility rate labor supply human capital accumulation economic growth |
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