区域人口抚养负担的评价方法与实证分析

针对常用人口抚养负担评价方法的缺陷,构建了抚养负担数量指数和抚养负担质量指数,以便科学反映区域人口的抚养负担。并选取中国为实证对象,进行了有效验证。研究表明:从抚养负担数量指数看,除城镇外,农村和全国的抚养负担都在减轻;从抚养负担质量指数看,农村、城镇和全国的抚养负担都在大幅度减轻。相关分析显示中国非劳动人口比重下降的根源在于农村非劳动人口比重的减少,不过减小人口抚养负担的关键在于增强劳动人口的创收能力,并非仅依赖于非劳动人口比重的下降。

The Evaluation Methods of Regional Dependency Burden and Its Empirical Analysis

This paper constructs a set of new evaluation model,which can be described as dependency burden quantity index(DBQTI) and dependency burden quality index(DBQLI).The two proposed indexes provide a dual perspective on the evaluation of regional dependency burden.With China as a case study,the research indicates that the quantity of rural and nationwide non-laborers reduced obviously during 1978~2009,but the rural-urban and nationwide quality of life all increased notably.However,rural migrant laborers are har...