云南产业结构变迁对经济增长的效应研究——基于偏离—份额的分析方法

文章运用偏离-份额模型,对西部大开发前后十年①西部地区各省区市经济总体情况及云南省三次产业作两阶段偏离-份额分析,发现随着西部大开发战略的实施,西部地区大部分省区市进入产业结构调整时期,经济竞争力明显增强,而云南省产业结构却未得到有效调整,且其二、三产业的整体竞争力呈下降趋势,进而严重制约云南省的经济发展。从省情出发,云南应加快提高自主创新能力,增强产业竞争力;加快推进新型工业化;大力发展现代农业、服务业等产业。

Effects of the Changes of Yunnan’s Industrial Structure on its Economic Growth in the Perspective of Shift-share Analysis

The paper adopts the shift-share analysis to study the total economic growth of west China and especially Yunnan’s economic development in the ten years before and after the implementation of the great-leap-forward development policy of west China.It concludes that the transformation of industrial structure in most provinces in west China has resulted in better economic competitiveness while there have been no effective transformation in Yunnan’s industrial structure,and its secondary industry and tertiary industry are on the decline in terms of economic competitiveness.It finally brings up such suggestions as the improvement of its innovative ability and industrial competitiveness by quickening new industrialization,modern agriculture and tertiary industry.