| 中国城市化发展进程及展望 |
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| 引用本文： | 韩本毅. 中国城市化发展进程及展望[J]. 西安交通大学学报(社会科学版), 2011, 31(3): 18-22 |
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| 作者姓名： | 韩本毅 |
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| 作者单位： | 西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安,710061 |
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| 摘 要： | 中国的城市化在改革开放后步入了平稳发展期,遵循城市化逻辑增长模型,利用1973-2008年的数据进行估计后得出:中国城市化年均增长速度为0.0412,远远快于0.01729的世界平均水平;2014年左右,中国将结束高速城市化过程,此时的城市化率将达50.11%;中国城市化的饱和值约为84.98%,而67%左右可能是中国未来20年城市化发展的顶部,此后城市化水平会在一个较长的时期维持在70%左右。
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| 关 键 词： | 城市化 城市化率 逻辑增长模型 |
History and Future of Urbanization in China |
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| HAN Ben-yi. History and Future of Urbanization in China[J]. Journal of Xi'an Jiaotong University(Social Sciences), 2011, 31(3): 18-22 |
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| Authors: | HAN Ben-yi |
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| Affiliation: | HAN Ben-yi(School of economy and finance,Xi′an Jiaotong University,Xi′an 710061,China) |
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| Abstract: | Since the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy,the urbanization in China has stepped into a period of stable development.Following the model of the logic growth of urbanization,and making an estimation using the data over the 1973-2008 period,it is discovered that the growth rate of annual average of the urbanization in China is 0.0412,far greater than the world annual level of 0.01729.China will end its high-speed urbanization level by 2014 during which,the rate of urbanization will reach 50.... |
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| Keywords: | Urbanization urbanization level urbanization rate logic growth model |
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