21世纪我国人口老化与生育政策选择

本文通过对不同生育率水平和不同生育政策选择方案下的我国21世纪人口发展趋势的预测,可以判断,制约我国21世纪初期的生育政策选择的因素不仅仅是人口总量压力,在实现人口规模控制在16亿以内的前提下,人口老化成为制约我们选择何种生育政策使我国21世纪中后叶人口年龄结构趋于优化的首要因素。

Demographic Aging and Choice of Birth Policy in 21th Century in China

This paper first engages in projection of population development tendency in 21th century under the different fertility level and different scheme of birth policy.On the basis of the result of population projection,I can initially get judgement that population scope is not the only effective factor of choise of birth policy in first half of the next century.Under the prerequisite that population scape is controlled within 1.6 billions,demographic aging will become the first effective factor of birth policy's choice,which makes population age composition reach rationalization in the second half of 21th century.