| 中国石油自给量分析与中国石油供给安全刍议 |
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| 引用本文： | 张传平,赵蕊蕊,闫雪平,傅崇昌.中国石油自给量分析与中国石油供给安全刍议[J].中国石油大学学报(社会科学版),2011(5):1-6. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张传平 赵蕊蕊 闫雪平 傅崇昌 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国石油大学经济管理学院,山东青岛,266555 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于中国1953—2010年石油自给量、消费量的数据,可建立相应的ARIMA(p,d,q)模型,预测未来中国石油自给量、消费量以及石油对外依存度。中国应加强国内勘探,努力提高石油自给量;加强科技支持,老油田努力增加贡献;加大"走出去"步伐,保证国内石油供应;加快"替代品"研发,减少中国经济社会对石油的依赖;建立包括全新的能源结构、能源生产方式和能源应用为内容的、带有根本性变革的能源新常态的新能源体系。
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| 关 键 词： | 自给与需求 时间序列 预测 石油安全 |
Analysis of Oil Self-Sustaining Quantity and Rustic Options of Oil Supply Security in China |
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| ZHANG Chuanping,ZHAO Ruirui,YAN Xueping,FU Chongchang.Analysis of Oil Self-Sustaining Quantity and Rustic Options of Oil Supply Security in China[J].Journal of China University Of Petroleum:Edition of Social Sciences,2011(5):1-6. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Chuanping ZHAO Ruirui YAN Xueping FU Chongchang |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Chuanping,ZHAO Ruirui,YAN Xueping,FU Chongchang(College of Economics & Management,China University of Petroleum,Qingdao,Shandong 266555,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the data of China＇s oil self-sustaining quantity and oil consumption from 1960 to 2010, we can establish the corre-sponding ARIMA （p,d q ）model to predict China＇s oil self-sustaining quantity, consumption and external dependence and propose the views： strengthen domestic exploration and try to improve the amount of oil self-sufficiency; strengthen scientific and technical support and make efforts increase the contribution of old oil fields ; expand the ＂going out＂ pace to ensure the domestic oil supply ; accelerate the research and development of ＂substitutes＂ to reduce the dependence of China＇s economy and society on oil; and establish a new energy system, including a energy new normal with the contents of new energy structure, energy production mode and energy use as well as essential transformation. |
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| Keywords: | self-sufficiency and demand time series prediction oil security |
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