中国棉花全要素生产率及其影响因素的区域性差异分析

在我国高库存背景下存在有效需求不足及耕地资源匮乏的双重矛盾，试图从全要素生产率的视角探讨中国棉花综合生产能力提高的路径。通过DEA Malmquist模型对中国2001-2014年棉花全要素生产率变化及差异进行分析，并利用动态面板LS方法估计TFP的主要影响因素。结果表明：中国棉花全要素生产率在下降，技术进步是构成棉花TFP提高的主要因素，新疆棉花具有较大发展潜力。在各影响因素中，棉花播种面积占比和受灾水平对棉花TFP的影响最显著；各地区棉花TFP的影响因素及影响程度存在一定差异，尤其是机械投入要素，在黄河流域和长江流域均表现出显著的负效应，而在西北内陆具有显著的正效应。

Regional Difference Analysis on China Cotton TFP and Its Influencing Factors

Considering the dual contradiction of insufficient effective demand and shortage of cultivated land resources under the background of high inventory in China, this paper tries to explore ways to improve the comprehensive production capacity of Chinese cotton from the perspective of TFP. Based on the DEA Malmquist model, this paper analyzes China cotton TFP changes and differences from 2001 to 2014 , and uses dynamic panel LS method to estimate the main influencing factors of TFP index. The result shows that Chinese cotton TFP is declining, technological progress is the main factor in the increase of cotton TFP, and Xinjiang cotton shows a potential for development.Among all of the influencing factors, the proportion of cotton sown area and the disaster level had the most significant influence on cotton TFP.There are some differences in the influencing factors and the degree of cotton TFP in different regions, especially the mechanical input elements. The Yellow River and Yangtze River have showed a significant negative effect, while in the inland Northwest it has a significant positive effect.