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Consistent testing for non‐correlation of two cointegrated ARMA time series
Authors:Abdessamad Saidi
Institution:Département de mathématiques et de statistique Université de Montréal Montréal (Québec), Canada H3C 3J7
Abstract:A consistent approach to the problem of testing non‐correlation between two univariate infinite‐order autoregressive models was proposed by Hong (1996). His test is based on a weighted sum of squares of residual cross‐correlations, with weights depending on a kernel function. In this paper, the author follows Hong's approach to test non‐correlation of two cointegrated (or partially non‐stationary) ARMA time series. The test of Pham, Roy & Cédras (2003) may be seen as a special case of his approach, as it corresponds to the choice of a truncated uniform kernel. The proposed procedure remains valid for testing non‐correlation between two stationary invertible multivariate ARMA time series. The author derives the asymptotic distribution of his test statistics under the null hypothesis and proves that his procedures are consistent. He also studies the level and power of his proposed tests in finite samples through simulation. Finally, he presents an illustration based on real data.
Keywords:Cointegration  independence test  kernel function  multivariate autoregressive moving average model  portmanteau statistics  residual cross‐correlation matrices
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