基于半参数估计的能源消费与经济增长关系研究

能源消费与经济增长的内在关系对国家能源政策的制定有着重要的影响,然而大量的研究得出的结论并未趋于一致。鉴此,使用半参数回归法,在不预先设定二者服从何种函数关系的情况下,对中国1998——2008年30个省份的能源消费与经济增长关系进行研究。结果显示:中国不同地区的能源消费与经济增长的内在依存关系呈现出不同的特征。从全国范围看,能源消费与经济增长之间呈现出扁平S型的非线性关系,该非线性关系总体呈现上升趋势;东部地区能源消费与经济增长之间呈现出logistic型非线性关系,西部地区呈现宽U型非线性关系。

A Relationship Study between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Based on the Semi-parameter Estimation

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has an important impacton the energy policies. However, a large number of studies have not show a consistence conclusion. This article uses a semi-parametric regression method, which is not subject to the pre-set function, to study the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth from 1998 to 2008 based on 30 provinces. This study shows that different regions of China＇s energy consumption and economic growth inherent dependencies exhibit different characteristics. Nationwide region shows a flat S-type nonlinear relationship and a upward trend; the eastern region shows a logistie-ype non-linear relationship, the western region presents a wide U-shaped nonlinear relation~hin