| 计划生育利益导向政策对家庭发展的影响效应分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 石智雷,徐玮.计划生育利益导向政策对家庭发展的影响效应分析[J].南方人口,2014(1):11-20. |
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| 作者姓名： | 石智雷 徐玮 |
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| 作者单位： | 中南财经政法大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430073 |
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| 基金项目： | 本文受社科重大项目“完善计划生育利益导向机制研究”（项目编号：11＆ZD038）以及教育部人文社科基金项目“计划生育政策对家庭发展能力的影响及家庭发展政策的构建”（项目编号：12YJC840032） |
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| 摘 要： | 我国计划生育利益导向政策可大致分为早期主要控制人口数量的利益导向政策和当前倾向于综合治理的利益导向政策两个时期。本文在回顾计划生育利益导向政策的演变历程的基础上,利用1991-2010年我国29个省的面板数据实证分析了计划生育利益导向政策对家庭发展的影响,研究发现,相比较于以控制人口数量为主的计划生育利益导向政策,倾向于综合治理的计划生育利益导向政策对生育水平的影响效应更强,并且更有利于家庭经济状况的改善。在倾向于综合治理的计划生育利益导向政策的实施下,家庭会调整发展策略,通过风险外部转移和加强人力资本投资等多种方式,缓冲由于子女数量减少导致的不确定风险增加。
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| 关 键 词： | 计划生育利益导向政策 家庭发展 控制人口数量 综合治理 |
An Analysis of the Impact of the Benefit-Oriented Family Planning Policy on Family Development |
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| SHI Zhi-lei,XU Wei.An Analysis of the Impact of the Benefit-Oriented Family Planning Policy on Family Development[J].South China Population,2014(1):11-20. |
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| Authors: | SHI Zhi-lei XU Wei |
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| Institution: | School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073 |
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| Abstract: | China＇s benefit-oriented family planning policy can be divided roughly into two stages： early stage of population control and current comprehensive governance. The review of the changing process of benefit-oriented family planning policy and an analysis of the panel data of 29 provinces between 1991 to 2010 found that comprehensive governance policy boast of much stronger impacts on family development and is more conducive to the improvement of domestic economy compared with the population control policy. Under the comprehensive governance policy, families tend to adjust development strategy to relieve the uncertain risks resulted from children decrease by external transfer of risks and better investment of human capital. |
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| Keywords: | Benefit-oriented Family Planning Policy Family Development Population Control Comprehensive Governance |
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