中国农村地区收入分布的趋同及其演化

中国农村地区收入分布的静态趋同和动态演化研究,采用核密度估计及Silverman多众数检验法,考察1989-2007年地区收入分布的集聚状况,未发现统计上显著的'双峰'趋同,但分布的集聚状况存在明显的演化趋势。因素分析表明:(1)工资性收入和家庭经营性收入变动促使在1993-1998年出现了'单峰'趋向'双峰'再回'单峰'的演化历程,其中家庭经营性收入变动在前一阶段推动'双峰化',后又促使分布回到'单峰',而工资性收入变动始终阻碍收入分布趋向'双峰'；(2)工资性收入变动是中国农村地区收入分布近十年来未趋向'两俱乐部'的主要原因,进一步将其影响分解为分配效应和增长效应后发现,各地平均工资的增长是始终维持'单一俱乐部'的关键。

Regional Income Distribution in Rural China :Convergence and Dynamics

This paper analyses the static convergence and dynamics of regional income distribution in rural China . The convergence of income distribution during 1989—2007 is examined by kernel density estimation and Silverman's multimodality test . It is found that there's no statistically significant'twin peaks'convergence in the regional income distribution . However ,there exists a dynamic change in it . The results of factor analysis have the following two indications . First , between 1993 and1998 ,the change of wageincome and household businessincome resultedin the dynamic process of income distribution from'single peak'to'twin peaks', and back to'single peak'a gain .Especially , the change of household business income contributed to a'twin peaks'income distribution in the earlier stage and a'single peak'one in the later stage while the change of wage income always led toa'single peak'd istribution .Second ,thechange of wageincome had been the main driving force for maintaining'singe peak'distribution since 1999 . The impact of wage income on the income distribution could be decomposed into a distributional effect and a growth effect ,in which the latter ,namely the growth of average regional income ,was the key to maintaining the‘single peak’income distribution in rural China .