From the First to the Second Demographic Transition: An Interpretation of the Spatial Continuity of Demographic Innovation in France, Belgium and Switzerland

This article links spatialindicators of two demographic innovation wavesto historical and contemporary covariates ofboth a socio-economic and a cultural nature. The two waves of innovation correspond to theso-called first and second demographictransitions (FDT, SDT), respectively. Aconnection is made between the emergence ofspatial demographic patterns and A.J. Coale'sthree preconditions for innovation, i.e. readiness, willingness and ability(RWA-model) and to the influence of networks inshaping relatively stable regional subcultures. Since the RWA-model is of the bottleneck type, it is expected that the slowest moving ormost resistant condition will largely determinethe spatial outcome of the two demographictransitions. In the instances of Frenchdépartements, Belgian arrondissements andSwiss cantons, clear statistical associationsemerge between indicators of both FDT and SDTand cultural indicators. This suggests thatthe willingness condition, as reflected inregional subcultures, has been the dominantbottleneck in both waves of demographicinnovation. The Swiss evidence is, however,weaker than that for France and Belgium,despite the fact that, here too, associationsare in the expected direction.