中国区域间人口红利差异分解及解释——基于数据包络分析模型

劳动力资源作为经济发展的关键要素,其配置效率差异加剧了中国区域间经济发展的失衡。文章从人均经济产出公式出发,构建了一个涵盖人力资本积累和物质资本积累影响因素的人口红利实现模型,并采用数据包络分析法对2006～2010年中国各地区人口红利实现的相对效率进行测度与分解,利用Tobit模型对其技术效率和规模效率进行解释。结果发现,中国东部地区人口红利实现效率明显高于中西部地区,从人口红利实现的技术效率来看,主要受教育水平及聚集效应、劳动参与水平的影响,影响系数分别为0.0102和0.0149;从人口红利实现的规模效率来看,主要受教育水平及聚集效应、资本积累的产业环境、物质资本形成效应的影响,影响系数分别为0.1549、0.1234和0.0371。文章最后提出了相关政策建议。

A Breakdown Study and Interpretation of Regional Demographic Bonus Difference in China: Based on Data Envelopment Analysis Model

Since labor resources are a key factor in economic development,the difference of their allocation efficiency has aggravated the imbalance of China’s regional economic development.Based on the formula of per capital GDP,this paper constructs an interpretation model of demographic bonus containing influence factors of human capital and material capital accumulation.Subsequently,using data envelopment analysis model we have measured and decomposed relative efficiency of demographic bonus in each region of China during 2006-2010.We have also accounted for the technical efficiency and scale efficiency by using Tobit model.Empirical analysis shows that the relative efficiency of demographic bonus in the Eastern region is higher than those in the middle and west areas.The technical efficiency is mainly affected by education level,aggregation effect of labor force and its participation rate,with influence radios of 0.0102 and 0.0149.Meanwhile,The scale efficiency is mainly affected by education level,aggregation effect of labor force,industrial environment of capital accumulation and generation effect of material capital,with influence radios of 0.1549,0.1234 and 0.0371.Finally,this paper puts forward suggestions related to the findings.