市场预期与资本流动的实证研究

考察市场预期对资本流动的影响及其表现,然后通过考察货币危机的国际研究经验,借鉴EMS模型和预警方法,计算了中国外汇市场压力指标,以检验中国金融市场的脆弱性与货币政策的适应性。实证结果表明,外汇市场压力指标能反映中国经济体制改革过程中表现的经济变量变化的实际情况。

Market Expectation and Capital Flows

A brief examination is made in this paper on the effects of market expectation over capital flows as well as the concrete behaviors. Then based on a review of international experiences in the researches on the monetary crisis, with reference to EMS model and precaution method, it calculates the indices of China's foreign exchange market pressure to examine the fragility of China's financial market and the flexibility of monetary policy. It is indicated by the empirical demonstration that the indices of China's foreign exchange market pressure reflect the real situation of economic variable changes shown in the process of China's economic system reform.