浙江未来人口变动与可持续发展问题

本文分析了浙江未来人口总量达到顶极规模，人口对经济、社会、资源、环境的压力达到最大时的人口状况及其对经济结构、社会进步、资源利用、环境保护将发生的影响，提出了下述对策性建议：适应人口年龄结构变化调整产业和就业结构，改革社会、家庭和个人财富分配使用方式，建立城乡并重接轨的社会保障制度、特别是适合浙江实际情况的养老保障体系；调整教育资源的时间、空间、教育等级分布；推进劳动和分配制度改革，加强人口流动和流动人口管理，使劳动力实现有序配置和整合；发展环保产业，实现劳动就业与资源保护、环境治理的良性循环等。并认为在人口问题上应实行数量“两步走”、素质“非常规跨越式提高”、结构“尽可能轻负担”的战略。

Population Prospects and Sustainable Development of Zhejiang

This paper forecasts the time when the number of population of Zhejiang will approach its maximum and its great pressures on economy, society, resources and environment at that time. It also puts forward some strategic countermeasures, the most important of which are to adjust industrial and occupational structure; to reform the way of wealth distribution among society, family and indivi-duals; to establish the social security system in urban areas as well as in rural areas, especially to establish the security system for the aged people which will be appropriate to Zhejiang; to adjust the time, space and grade distribution of educational resources; to advance the reforms of labor and income distribution system, and to reinforce the management of population movement as well as the mobile population so as to make an order-specific distribution of manpower; to develop the environmental protection industries and to realize a benign cycle of employment, resources protection and pollution control. In addition, it makes three strategic suggestions two steps should be taken to approach the optimum population; special measures should be taken to improve population quality; and population structure should obey the rule of “the least economic dependent ratio”.