Alerts and catastrophes: The case of the 1999 storm in France,a treacherous risk |
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| Authors: | François Dedieu |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Centre for Environmental and Climate Research, Lund University, Sölvegatan 37, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden;2. Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden;3. INRA – UR 1138 Biogéochimie des Ecosystèmes Forestiers, route d’amance, 54280 Champenoux, France;1. Forest Research Institute Baden-Wuerttemberg, Wonnhaldestr. 9, 79100 Freiburg, Germany;2. AgroParisTech, 14 rue Girardet, 54042 Nancy, France;3. Institut National de Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Centre de Nancy-Lorraine, 54280 Champenoux, France;1. Ecologie, Systématique, Evolution, AgroParisTech, CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris-Saclay, 91405, Orsay, France;2. Master Bioterre, Université Paris 1 Panthéon Sorbonne, 75005, Paris, France;3. GAEL, INRA, CNRS, Grenoble INP, Univ. Grenoble Alpes, 38000, Grenoble, France;1. Institute of Silviculture, Department of Forest- and Soil Sciences, University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), Vienna, Austria;2. Department of Landscape Architecture, Planning and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Alnarp, Sweden;1. Department of Radiation Sciences, Umeå university, Umeå, Sweden;2. Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden;3. Stockholm and R & D Department, Stockholms Sjukhem Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden;4. Palliative Care Unit Stockholms, Sjukhem Foundation, Stockholm, Sweden |
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| Abstract: | How is it that catastrophes always seem predictable ex post but never ex ante? The paradox is recurrent. Our study of the warnings issued prior to one of the last major natural disasters in France – the tempest of December 27, 1999 – focuses on the organizational factors accounting for the surprise effect of the catastrophe, to try and understand why, though the phenomenon had been predicted and announced by the French weather bureau, the protagonists of Civil Defense said the magnitude of the event took them by surprise. A multi-level, qualitative analysis of the inter-organizational meteorological alert system shows that a combination of factors pertaining to structure, context and individuals transformed the warnings into routine messages. The case of the 1999 storm allows us to introduce a particular, ideal-type of risk, the treacherous risk, which, though clearly announced, was disregarded because seemingly so familiar. |
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