中国城市居民出行CO2排放特征及影响因素

利用居民出行调查数据,测算2000-2012年北京市和上海市居民家庭日常出行交通CO2的排放量;以2000年为基年,采用对数平均迪氏因素分解(LMDI)方法,对北京市和上海市居民出行交通CO2排放变化进行分解分析.结果表明:(1)2000-2012年,北京市和上海市的居民出行交通CO2排放均呈显著增加趋势,且北京市CO2排放总量远大于上海市;(2)收入、交通工具使用次数、人口对两市居民日常出行交通CO2排放变化起促进作用;(3)居民出行强度和居民出行结构对两市居民出行CO2排放的增加起抑制作用;(4)不同交通工具碳排放水平对北京市CO2排放变化的作用为负,而对上海市作用为正.

Characteristics and Influence Factors for Mega-urban Resident Daily Trip CO2 Emissions in China

This paper calculates the carbon emissions from urban passenger transportation sector in Beijing and Shanghai from 2000 to 2012, and then discusses the effects of population, per capita economic activity, transportation intensity, transportation mode share, vehicle-use intensity and emission coefficient on carbon emissions based on LMDI decomposition analysis. Results shows that:(1) carbon emissions due to urban traffic has increased rapidly both in Beijing and Shanghai, and the emissions in Beijing are far larger than Shanghai;(2) per capita disposable income, vehicle-use intensity, and population effect are found to be the main drivers that increase household daily travel carbon emissions;(3)transportation intensity and transportation mode share have significant effects on the reduction of carbon emissions;(4)emission coefficient plays the opposite effect on carbon emissions in Beijing and Shanghai.