Fuzzy Risks and an Updating Algorithm with New Observations |
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| Authors: | Chongfu Huang Da Ruan |
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| Institution: | 1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.;2. Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875, China.;3. Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK·CEN), Boeretang 200, 2400 Mol, Belgium.;4. Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Sciences, Ghent University, Krijgslaan 281/S9, B‐9000 Gent, Belgium. |
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| Abstract: | Concerning the essence of risk, we suggest a new definition of risk: a scene in the future associated with some adverse incident. In many cases, risks are rather fuzzy for our perception because of the shortage of knowledge or information about the systems that determine the adverse incidents. We introduce a concept of fuzzy risk based on the new risk definition and fuzzy sets. And, in this article, we suggest a fuzzy average algorithm to update a fuzzy risk that stores all information from the original data. To illustrate the algorithm, we update a soft risk map of flood where the fuzzy risks are calculated using the interior-outer-set model. |
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| Keywords: | Fuzzy probability interior-outer-set model possibility-probability distribution risk |
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