人口预测在区域规划中的重要作用——以加拿大大黄金马蹄形片区为例

加拿大安大略省未来30年人口自然增长极其缓慢且老龄化严重,国际移民是人口增长的主要动因,且居住选择青睐于基础较好的大多伦多一带。在人口预测基础上,安省确定以多伦多向西南拓展的大黄金马蹄形地区为未来重点增长区,首次使用立法程序制订了专门的《区域规划法》,确定了科学的指导思想及基础设施、行业发展及环境保护专项规划。这对我国加强长期人口预测分析,坚持其在区域规划的基础性作用及两者的互动衔接,制定科学的区域规划,运用行政、经济、特别是法律手段保证实施等,具有一定的启示和借鉴意义。

Population Projection Plays an Important Role in Regional Planning

Projecting natural population growth over the next 30 years,aging and slow natural growth are serious problems in Canada's Province of Ontario.International immigration has become the main driver of population growth,as more immigrants choose to live in the Greater Toronto Area with its more attractive infrastructure.On the basis of population projections,the Greater Golden Horseshoe Area southwest of Toronto has been designated by the Provincial Government as the focal point for future population increases.This has prompted the passage for the first time of a special "regional planning law",which has confirmed a scientific approach,infrastructure planning,trade development and environmental protection as key areas of sub-planning.This case can provide China with an important model of how strengthening long-term population projection can make a critical contribution to regional development planning.Greater attention should be paid to the basic functions of these two factors and their interaction in making regional planning more scientific,and more effectively using administrative,economic,and especially legal measures to implement regional planning.