“绿色经济”视角下汽车消费税的政策效应

汽车消费税是降低汽车工业能源消耗和交通污染排放的重要手段。在汽车消费税"绿色政策"效应研究理论的基础上,通过构建虚拟变量和断点回归模型对1994-2014年中国汽车行业的相关数据进行实证分析。研究发现,在短期受"价格效应"的影响,汽车消费税抑制了汽车生产及使用环节的CO2排放量,并且促进了汽车行业的技术进步;在长期"反弹效应" "市场效应" "生产效应""替换效应"和"持续效应"的共同作用下,导致政策对CO2排放量的影响表现为负向效应。此外,政策的实施在增加小排量汽车销售量的同时降低了大排量汽车的销售量,但是对3.0~4.0升（含4.0升）以及4.0升以上排量汽车的销售量没有显著影响。鉴于此,提出完善汽车税收制度的改革建议,以期为下一步的政策制定提供参考依据。

The Effect of Automobile Consumption Tax Policy in the Perspective of "Green Economy"

Automobile consumption tax is an important means to reduce energy consumption and traffic pollution emissions of automobile industry. On the basis of the theoretical model,makes an empirical analysis on the relevant data of Chinese automobile industry by constructing dummy variables and breakpoint regression model in 1994-2014. It is concluded that in the short term,the automobile consumption tax inhibits the carbon dioxide emissions from automobile production and usesegmentsby the influences of "price effect",and promotes the technological progress of the automotive industry; in the long-term, "rebound effect", "market effect", "production effect", "substitution effect" and "sustained effect",leading to nagetive effect in the impact of policies on the carbon dioxide emissions. In addition,the implementation of the policy increases small displacement car sales,at the same time reduces the large displacement car sales,but to 3.0-4.0 liter(including 4.0 liter)and 4.0 liters or more displacement car sales,it has no significant impact. In view of this,put forward to reform proposals of improving the automobile tax system,in order to provide a reference for the next policy development.