国家间信任研究的路径比较:从博弈论到社会网络分析

国家间信任是关乎合作与冲突的重要议题,对不确定的国际体系而言尤为重要。梳理现有的研究文献,笔者归纳出国家间信任分析的三种主路径,它们的思路存在较大差异:博弈论从理性选择角度分析信任关系对成本支出的改变,进而影响合作建立与维持;合法化机制一方面从强式制度主义出发解释制度结构对信任的制约,另一方面也从弱势规范意义上分析了信任与规范、身份的关系,它认为国家选择信任除了利益动机之外还有被社会承认的合法化需要;网络分析则关注社会关系如何孕育信任,"嵌入性"视角试图在宏观与微观分析之间建立"第三条道路"。梳理、评介不同的研究路径有助于促进国际信任研究的发展。

A Comparison of Various Approaches to International Trust:From Game Theory to Social Network Analysis

Inter-state trust is a key topic dealing with conflict and cooperation between states,and is all the more important for uncertain international systems.Based on the combing of present literatures,the author generalized three main approaches of researches on inter-state trust,which have respectively different train of thought in the analysis.The game theory emphasizes that trust relations can change the payoffs of plays＇ game by the way of rational choice and in turn influences the establishment and maintaining of cooperation. While on the one hand the legitimacy mechanism tries to explain the check and balance on trust from system with the strong views of institutionalism,on the other hand it analyses the relationship of trust, norms and identity,using the method of soft- normative mechanism.This paper argues that states are also required to be recognized as being legitimate in society besides prompted by self- interest when they trust each other.Social network analysis focuses on how social relations foster trust,and trying＂to be embedded in＂ is intended for finding the middle way in-between the macro-micro disputes.Finally,combing and reviewing of different approaches will help promote the future development of inter- state trust researches.