居民家庭的过度负债:度量与特征——来自中国家庭微观调查数据的分析

居民家庭合理负债可以通过消费平滑提升其生命周期的总效用,但过度负债会影响债务的可持续性。通过回顾现有研究中关于家庭过度负债的定义及其主要度量方式,确定了中国居民家庭过度负债的客观度量指标,包括债务偿还负担类指标和偿债后家庭贫困类指标两类。在此基础上,选取清华大学中国金融研究中心中国城镇家庭微观调查数据,以家庭经济压力的主观度量为依据,借助列联表确定了6个客观度量指标的阈值,并进一步考察了过度负债家庭的基本特征。研究发现:(1)以债务偿还比率、调整后债务偿还比率及房贷偿还比率为基础构造的过度负债识别指标的阈值分别为50%、45%和40%;(2)以相对收入贫困线、绝对收入贫困线及绝对消费贫困线为基础构造的过度负债识别指标的阈值分别为30%、2300元和1.9美元;(3)家庭的净资产和收入、人口学特征以及所在地域等因素均会对过度负债行为产生显著影响,但这种影响在不同的度量指标中呈现出明显的异质性。研究结论为客观评价中国居民家庭的过度负债提供了经验证据,对于结构性优化居民部门的杠杆率水平具有重要指导价值。

Household Over-indebtedness:Measurements and Characteristics Based on Analysis of Chinese Household Micro-survey Data

The reasonable household debt can enhance the total utility of life cycle through consumption smoothing,but over-indebtedness will affect the sustainability of the debt.This paper reviews the existing studies on the definition and main measure methods of household over-indebtedness,and determines the objective measure index for Chinese household over-indebtedness,including burden index of debt repayment and poverty index of debt service families.On that basis,with the micro-survey data of China's urban households conducted by China Financial Research Center,Tsinghua University,on the basis of the subjective measures in family economic pressure,with the help of a contingency table to find out the six objective measures,this paper further investigates the basic features of over-indebted households.The research has found that:(1)The threshold value of over-indebtedness identification index is 50%45%and 40%respectively according to debt service rate,adjusted debt service ratio and housing loan payment rate in terms of over-indebtedness identification index;(2)The threshold value of over-indebtedness identification index is 30%,RMB Yuan 2300 and USD 1.9 respectively based on relative income poverty line,absolute income poverty line and absolute consumption poverty line;(3)The factors such as household net asset and income condition,demographic characteristics,areas of location,etc.have significant impacts on over-indebtedness behaviors,but the effects show the obvious heterogeneity in different indicators.The research conclusions provide the empirical evidences for the objective evaluation on China's household over-indebtedness,which is of important guiding value to the structural optimization of leverage in household sectors.