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Improved estimation for the autocovariances of a Gaussian stationary process
Authors:Masanobu Taniguchi  Hiroshi Shiraishi  Hiroaki Ogata
Institution:1. Department of Mathematical Sciences , School of Science and Engineering, Waseda University , 3-4-1 Okubo Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan taniguchi@waseda.jp;3. Department of Mathematical Sciences , School of Science and Engineering, Waseda University , 3-4-1 Okubo Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, 169-8555, Japan
Abstract:For a Gaussian stationary process with mean μ and autocovariance function γ(·), we consider to improve the usual sample autocovariances with respect to the mean squares error (MSE) loss. For the cases μ=0 and μ≠0, we propose sort of empirical Bayes type estimators Γ? and Γ?, respectively. Then their MSE improvements upon the usual sample autocovariances are evaluated in terms of the spectral density of the process. Concrete examples for them are provided. We observe that if the process is near to a unit root process the improvement becomes quite large. Thus, consideration for estimators of this type seems important in many fields, e.g., econometrics.
Keywords:Gaussian stationary process  Autocovariance  Spectral density  Mean squares error  Empirical Bayes estimator  James-Stein estimator  Shrinkage estimator
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