河南省人口红利与经济增长关系研究

基于柯布道格拉斯生产函数的理论推导，建立人均收入、人均物质资本和总抚养比三者的计量模型，利用1987—2013年的时间序列数据，通过协整理论对计量模型进行检验，研究河南省人口红利与经济增长的关系。结果显示：三者之间存在长期稳定关系，在长期，总抚养比对人均收入具有负向影响，人均物质资本对经济增长具有正向影响，并且总抚养比变化对人均收入的影响比物质资本投入大；在短期，抚养比变化并未直接作用于经济增长，物质资本的投入对经济增长的影响具有滞后性。

Study on Relationship Between tDemographic Dividend and Economic Growth of Henan Province

The paper established the econometric model of per capita income,per capita physical cap-ital and total dependency ratio based on the theoretical derivation of Cobb-Douglas production function to study on the relationship between the demographic dividend and economic growth in Henan prov-ince. Through the cointegration theory,we tested the measurement model by using the time series data of 1987—2013. The results show three variables have the long-term stability relationship. In the long term,the total dependency ratio has negative impact on per capita income,and per capita physical capital has a positive impact on economic growth and the total dependency ratio on the impact of in-come per capita is larger than physical capital investment. In short term,the dependency ratio’s changes has not significant contribution directly to economic growth and the physical capital invest-ment has lagged effect on economic growth.