我国经济增长周期模型的理论基础与建模思路

以经济增长周期理论为基础，从需求决定角度构建一个简单的经济增长周期模型，该模型共有GDP、投资、消费、出口、进口等16个内生变量，包括短期波动模型、中期波动模型、中长期波动模型、长期波动模型和动态均衡值模型等5个子模型。从模拟预测情况看，除短期波动模型模拟预测值与实际值偏差较大外，其他模型模拟预测值均与实际值高度一致，即经济增长周期模型能够较好地模拟样本区间内各内生变量的周期性波动及其动态均衡值发展状况。

The Theoretic Basis and Model Building Ideas of Periodic Model of Chinese Economic Development

Based on the theory of periodic economic development,this paper constructs a simple periodic model of economic development from the perspective of demand determinism.The model consists of 16 endogenous variables,such as GDP,investment,consumption,export,inport and so on,and 5 sub-models,namely short term waves model,medium-term waves model,medium-long term waves model and long term waves model and dynamic equilibrium model.According to the simulative results,each model forecasts a similar results compared to reality except the short term waves model,which forecasts a rather different value.So the periodic model of economic development can better simulate the periodic waves of endogenous variables and the development of dynamic equilibrium.