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Aging, fertility, social security and political equilibrium
Authors:Makoto Hirazawa  Koji Kitaura  Akira Yakita
Institution:(1) Graduate School of Economics, Chukyo University, 101-2 Yagoto-Honmachi, Showa-ku Nagoya, 466-8666, Japan;(2) Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba, 1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba 305-8573, Japan;;
Abstract:We analyze the effect of population aging on the political choice of the size of a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) social security system, incorporating the heterogeneity of individuals in their preference for having children, and hence the endogenous fertility choices of individuals, into a simple overlapping generations model. We show that population aging may result in an increase in the contribution rate, increasing the share of the retired population who prefer a higher contribution rate; and that, if the system involves redistribution between retirees with different contributions, the increased contribution rate raises the number of individuals who have children, i.e., future contributors.
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