江苏城市人口增长方式的实证研究

在城市化实践中,我国政府一直坚持控制大城市规模的主张,但理论和实践证明“规模政策”有明显的不足和缺陷。本文以江苏省40个城市为研究对象,通过回归分析方法、绘制人口洛伦兹曲线实证研究了江苏省城市人口增长的方式。由此,得出结论:江苏省40个城市人口年平均增长率与其初始人口数量之间存在着一定的相关关系,城市人口增长属于收敛式的增长方式。

Case Study on the Urban Population Growth Style in Jiangsu

The government persists in controlling the size of large cities in the urbanization policy practice.However,"the policy of size" is proved to be obviously shortage and defect.This paper studies the urban population growth style in about 40 cities of Jiangsu province,based on the regression and Lorenz curves.It can be concluded that the average growth rate of the 40 cities significantly correlates with the population size at the beginning,and the urban population growth is convergent.