区域科学发展的实证分析——基于面板数据的联立方程估计

考虑到区域经济增长、环境与就业之间的多向影响机制，基于榆林市12区县2006--2010年的面板数据，通过构建包括经济、环境与就业效应的联立方程模型，探讨了区域发展的主要影响因素。实证结果表明，榆林地区工业废水、工业二氧化硫、工业固体废物与人均GDP之间呈倒“u”型EKC曲线关系，符合环境库兹涅茨曲线假说，但还远没有越过环境曲线的拐点；相关检验结果说明榆林地区的经济增长应逐步打破当前的要素投入依赖，转变增长方式，社会保障和教育投资的增长效益也在显现。

An Empirical Study on Regional Scientific Development --A simultaneous equation estimation based on panel data model

Based on the panel data of 12 counties cusses the major factors affecting the regional （district） of Yulin from 2006 to 2010, the paper disdevelopment in such aspects as regional economic growth,regional pollution, and employment, by constructing a simultaneous model of the regional pollution indicators, the regional economic growth and the employment indicators. The results show that the relation between GDP per capita and three indicators of Yulin （the indwater, the indSO2 and the indwaste） presents an inverted ＂U-shape＂ curve, which is consistent with hypothetical EKC （En- vironment Kuanets Curve）, and yet far away from the inflection point. The relevant outcome shows that as far as the economic growth is concerned, it is necessary for Yulin to break the dependence on the current input, change the growth mode so that the benefit of social security and educational investment growth are evident.