Research on the Accumulation Effect of Pension Income and Payments Caused by Progressive Retirement Age Postponement Policy in China |
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| Authors: | Xing Ren Heng Xi Shaoguo Zhai |
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| Institution: | 1. Doctoral Candidate of Public Economics, School of Public Administration, Northwest University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China;2. Professor of School of Public Management, School of Public Management, Northwest University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China;3. Associate Professor of School of Public Management, School of Public Management, Northwest University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China |
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| Abstract: | A retirement age postponement policy will not only increase pension income but also reduce pension payments, which will cause an accumulation effect on the size of the pension fund and relieve the intensifying pressure on pension payments. Based on the analysis of historical data in order to predict the population and pension scale in China, this research shows that the working-age population will gradually decrease, the supply of labor will decrease, and the demographic dividend will gradually disappear between 2018 and 2055 if the current retirement policy remains unrevised. According to three different retirement age postponement policy options, we establish that there are significant accumulation effects that can alleviate the pressure on pension funds. Among these policies, the postpone retirement policy option, which is based on the working period, is more conducive to a smoother policy implementation effect in the long term. |
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| Keywords: | Progressively postponing retirement age pension income and payments accumulation effect scale prediction |
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