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Inference for the tail index of a GARCH(1,1) model and an AR(1) model with ARCH(1) errors
Authors:Rongmao Zhang  Chenxue Li
Institution:1. Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China;2. Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Abstract:For a GARCH(1,1) sequence or an AR(1) model with ARCH(1) errors, one can estimate the tail index by solving an estimating equation with unknown parameters replaced by the quasi maximum likelihood estimation, and a profile empirical likelihood method can be employed to effectively construct a confidence interval for the tail index. However, this requires that the errors of such a model have at least a finite fourth moment. In this article, we show that the finite fourth moment can be relaxed by employing a least absolute deviations estimate for the unknown parameters by noting that the estimating equation for determining the tail index is invariant to a scale transformation of the underlying model.
Keywords:AR model  empirical likelihood  GARCH sequence  tail index
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