影子银行对货币政策有效性的影响研究

影子银行体系的扩张削弱了货币政策宏观调控的效果。基于影子银行资金运作模式以及有限理性假设下的投资者偏好理论,从货币的流向入手,结合改进的货币乘数方程分析了影子银行对货币政策有效性的影响。理论分析表明:影子银行通过对现金漏损率、存款准备金率以及活期存款转化为定期存款比率的影响间接进行信用创造;有限理性视角下,投资者存在偏好反转的可能,从而影子银行能够通过影响投资者资产配置决策改变货币乘数,进而弱化货币政策的有效性。实证分析发现,影子银行体系的扩张对货币供应量、利率水平、货币乘数等货币政策中介变量产生了显著的影响,进而影响了货币政策的有效性。据此,提出扩大法定存款准备金的计提范围、加快完善利率市场化制度、创新货币政策工具和稳定投资者信心等建议。

The Impact of Shadow Banking on the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy

The expansion of the shadow banking system has weakened the effect of macroeconomic regulation and control.Based on the shadow banking capital operation model and the investor preference theory under the bounded rationality hypothesis,this paper analyzes the influence of shadow banking on the effectiveness of monetary policy from the flow of money and the improved currency multiplier equation.Theoretical analysis shows that shadow banking indirectly creates credit through the impact of cash leakage rate,deposit reserve ratio and demand deposits into time deposit ratios;from the perspective of limited rationality,investors have the possibility of reversing preferences,so that shadow banks can By changing the currency multiplier of investors’asset allocation decisions,the effectiveness of monetary policy is weakened.Empirical analysis shows that the expansion of the shadow banking system has a significant impact on monetary policy median variables such as money supply,interest rate levels,and currency multipliers,which in turn affects the effectiveness of monetary policy.Based on this,proposals were made to expand the scope of the statutory deposit reserve,speed up the improvement of the interest rate marketization system,innovate monetary policy tools,and stabilize investor’s confidence.