引进外资是否促进中国对外直接投资?——基于空间溢出与门槛特征的经验分析

在吸引外资与对外投资出现并驾齐驱发展趋势及十九大报告提出"坚持引进来和走出去并重"的背景下,讨论了中国引进外资政策是否有效促进了地区对外投资增长这一重要命题。首先,梳理了引进外资影响对外直接投资机制,对已有文献做出补充。其次,利用2003-2016年中国省级层面数据,构建R&D资本、R&D人员和经济空间权重,运用空间面板模型和门槛模型发现:(1)区域OFDI活动存在显著空间溢出效应,邻近地区OFDI对本地区OFDI具有明显"竞争效应";(2)短期内FDI对区域OFDI有正向促进作用,长期内影响则表现"倒U型";(3)以金融发展为门槛变量,证实FDI对区域OFDI存在三重门槛的非线性影响。最后,从协调两者发展机制、引进高质量外商资本和优化地区发展环境方面提出相应建议。

Does the Inward Foreign Investment Promote China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment: Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Spillovers and Threshold Mode

In the context of the trend of inward foreign investment and outward foreign investment developing rapidly,and the report of the 19 th National Congress insisting on"paying equal attention to bringing in and going out",the article discusses whether China’s attracting foreign investment policy has effectively promoted outward foreign investment growth.First of all,the mechanism and channels of inward foreign direct investment affecting outward foreign direct investment are sorted out,suppling the existing literature.Secondly,using the provincial level data from 2003 to 2016,constructing the R&D capital,R&D personnel and economic space matrix and utilizing the spatial panel model and the panel threshold model,found that:(1)Regional foreign direct investment activities have significant spatial spillover effects,and OFDI in neighboring regions has a significant"competitive effect"on foreign direct investment in the region.(2)The influence of FDI to regional OFDI in short term.has a positive promotion effect,the long-term influence is"inverted u type".(3)Taking financial development as a threshold,the article confirms the non-linear effect of FDI on the regional threshold of OFDI.Finally,the article makes some recommendations from coordinating the development mechanism of the two side,distinguishing high-quality foreign capital and optimizing the regional development environment.