A regional end use energy demand model

This paper describes a long-term energy demand forecasting model for Northern Ireland. The model is of the ‘what-if’ type for testing possible futures described by the model user and is based on a detailed activity analysis approach. The demand subsystem of the Northern Ireland energy system is divided into seven sectors and the demand for four end use categories for fuels considered. The structure of each of the seven sectors is modelled and future fuel demands calculated based on the driving functions of population and social and economic activity. For a given input scenario the model calculates the dockside oil equivalent primary fuel in tonnes for each year for 30 years.