RCEP与中国面临的贸易政策不确定性

为解读RCEP对中国经济的影响,对RCEP内容和成员国的贸易规模、人口数量、GDP总额、FDI净流入等进行分析,并同欧盟、北美自由贸易区区域内贸易量进行比较研究。研究认为,RCEP将重构亚洲区域内价值链分工关系,削减成员国之间的贸易壁垒,重新定义亚太地区的贸易模式,扩大亚太贸易区的贸易规模与国际地位,推动亚洲区域内的货物、资本和人员的自由流动,推进亚太经济圈良性“内循环”,有助于国际贸易的稳定和世界经济的复苏; RCEP将降低中国经济发展所面对的贸易政策不确定性,有助于加深和协调中国与周边经济体的经贸关系,满足中国的企业生产和消费者需求,有助于中国发展健康、可持续、平稳的对外贸易和投资关系,发挥中国在区域经济合作上的引领作用,为构建更稳定、互利、合作的全球经济关系奠定现实和制度基础,为中国经济发展和贸易增长提供新动能。

RCEP and trade policy uncertainties faced by China

In order to interpret the impact of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)on China’s economy, this paper analyzes the content of RCEP and the trade scale, population, gross GDP and FDI net inflow of member countries, and compares the intraregional trade volume with the EU and the North American Free Trade Area(NAFTA). Studies suggest that the RCEP will reconstruct value chain division of labor relations in Asia, reduce trade barriers among member states, redefine the trade pattern in the Asia-Pacific region, expand the scale of trade in the Asia-Pacific zone and its international status, promote the free flow of goods, capital and personnel in Asia, promote the benign "internal circulation" in the Asia-Pacific economic circle, and contribute to the stability of international trade and the recovery of the world economy. RCEP will reduce the trade policy uncertainties faced by China’s economic development, help to deepen and coordinate China’s economic and trade relations with the peripheral economies, meet the demand of China’s enterprises and consumers, help China to develop healthy, sustainable and steady foreign trade and investment relations, give full play to China’s leading role in regional economic cooperation, lay the realistic and institutional foundation for more stable global economic relations featuring cooperation and mutual benefit, and provide new momentum for China’s economic development and trade growth.