稳杠杆和稳增长目标下最优货币政策规则

针对货币政策如何对宏观杠杆率作出反应的问题,构建福利损失函数、动态IS-NK-Phillips曲线和自然利率内生决定方程所刻画的宏观经济约束环境,求解引入宏观杠杆率的最优利率和数量规则,并基于中国1996～2020年的季度宏观经济数据,采用GMM方法和State-Space方法分别估计固定参数和时变参数的最优货币政策规则。研究发现,中国最优利率规则和数量规则均具有显著盯住宏观杠杆的政策取向,且最优利率政策操作相比最优数量政策更具主动性; 最优利率规则促增长同时宏观杠杆率较为稳定,而最优数量规则熨平经济波动同时容易引发宏观杠杆率大幅波动; 面对重大经济冲击时,央行更加注重稳增长的同时包容温和通胀和适度杠杆。央行应对宏观杠杆率予以关注,发挥利率政策促增长的同时把好货币供应总闸门,进一步拓宽优化中国利率政策框架,延伸名义利率调控通货膨胀、实体经济和宏观杠杆的宽度,由不稳定规则转变为稳定规则,增强利率政策对宏观杠杆目标的调节功效,从而促进宏观经济可持续高质量发展。

The optimal monetary policy rule under goals of stabilizing leverage and steady growth

In order to understand the issue of how the monetary policies respond to the macro leverage ratio, this paper builds the macroeconomic constraint environment described by welfare loss function, dynamic IS-NK-Phillips curve and the natural interest rate endogenous decision-making equation to obtain the optimal interest rate and quantity rules incorporated into macro leverage ratio, and uses GMM and State-Space method to estimate the optimal monetary policy rule of fixed and time-varying parameters respectively based on the quarterly macroeconomic data from 1996 to 2020 in China. The results found that both the optimal interest rate rules and quantity rules in China have the policy orientation of focusing on macro leverage significantly, and the former is more proactive. Specifically, the optimal interest rate rule promotes growth at the same time the macro leverage ratio is relatively stable, while the optimal quantity rule irons out economic fluctuations and easily leads to a large fluctuation in the macro leverage ratio. Especially in the face of major economic shocks, the Central Bank has the preference for tolerating moderate inflation and appropriate leverage to steady growth. The Central Bank should pay attention to the macro leverage ratio, give full play to the effect of interest rate policy on promoting growth while securing the cap to the total money supply, further expand and optimize China's interest rate policy framework, extend the regulation range of nominal interest rate on inflation, the real economy and the macro leverage, transform from unsteady rule to steady rule, and enhance the mediating effects of interest rate policies on macro leverage goals, so as to promote the sustainable and high quality development of the macro economy.