我国石油消费与经济增长互动关系的实证研究

为了探究我国石油消费增长的原因,本文分别采用传统的能源经济分析方法和现代计量经济讨论我国石油消费与经济总量的互动关系。能源经济分析表明,石油消费强度和消费弹性等指标不能正确地描述我国石油消费与经济总量的互动关系;计量经济分析发现,我国经济总量和三次产业产值对石油消费具有较强的单向正影响;石油消费与三次产业构成综合均衡关系,第二、三产业的短期影响具有积累效应。

Empirical Analysis of Interactive Relationship between Oil Consumption and Economic Growth in China

To probe into the cause for the increasing oil consumption in China, this paper investigates the interactive relationship between oil consumption and economic growth by using respectively the traditional analytical instrument of energy economy and the modern econometrics. The traditional analysis of energy economy indicates that the indexes of oil consuming intensity and elasticity cannot identify exactly the interactive relationship between oil consumption and economic growth in China. The econometric anal...