体系变革、战略塑造与近代日本的海权兴衰

本文提出了地缘政治学的三种研究路径:地理要素、权力政治、战略分析。针对1868年明治维新至1941年的太平洋战争这段时期,日本的海权崛起为何逐渐走向失控这个议题,提出的自变量解释是体系变革,它涵盖权力结构、地理因素与攻防平衡交互影响等;国家的战略塑造能力是中介变量,包括:战略对手的塑造、国内共识的形成、地缘学说的吸收和运用、联盟战略构成等。结合海军与陆军部门的竞争关系、国内政治与外部战略环境的交互影响、地理与历史的基础性作用、对马汉、豪斯浩弗等地缘学者的历史影响考察,以及近代日本先后针对中国、俄国(苏联)和美国进行的战略调整优劣进行评估。最后得出结论:国家的海权发展应有大战略思维,片面追求军国主义和穷兵黩武不利于国家的长远利益。

System Reform,Strategic Shaping,and the Rise and Fall of Japan's Sea Power in Modern Times

First,this article traces proposes of geopolitics three research paths:geographical factors,power perspective,and strategic analysis.Secondly,for the period from the Meiji Restoration in 1868 to the Pacific War in 1941,why the rise of Japan's sea power gradually went out of control.The independent variable explanation proposed was a system change that covered the interactive influence of power structure,geographical factors,and offensive and defensive balance.The strategic shaping ability of a country is an intermediary variable,including:the formation of strategic opponents,the formation of domestic consensus,the absorption and application of geological doctrines,and the strategic composition of alliances.Combining the competitive relationship between the navy and the army,the interaction between domestic politics and the external strategic environment,the fundamental role of geography and history,it also examined the impact of modern Japan on Assess the pros and cons of strategic adjustments in China,Russia(Soviet Union),and the United States.Finally,it is concluded that the development of a country's sea power should have a large strategic thinking,and a onesided pursuit of militarism and poor military force is not good for the country's long-term interests.