Real wages,alcohol consumption and mortality in Sweden, 1861–1913

This paper addresses the decline in the Swedish mortality rate for adult men during the latter part of the nineteenth century. According to a recent study, the relationship between mortality and changes in real wages observed in previous stages of the demographic transition was non-existent in this period. By contrast, other findings suggest that the fluctuations in wages did have palpable consequences for people — emigration as well as crime (theft) were markedly affected. One hypothesis of the present study maintains that the shrinking consumption of alcohol is a partial explanation of the decline in mortality. Is is further suggested that a positive relationship between changes in real wages and alcohol consumption may conceal the wage effect on mortality. These hypotheses were empirically supported by time-series analyses of annual data covering the period 1861–1913. Real wages as well as alcohol consumption per capita had a statistically significant effect on male mortality. When the alcohol predictor was omitted in the model, the wage effect did not reach statistical significance. The decline in male mortality during the study period was, on the average, about one per cent per year. According to the results, a good half of this decrease is attributable to the trends in real wages and alcohol consumption.