基于VAR模型的安徽省粮食产量影响因素的实证研究

自然条件、政策环境、经济因素、技术进步等因素都会影响粮食产量。选取安徽省1990-2012年影响粮食生产的7个因素，最初，使用前向逐步回归分析的方法研究发现，对粮食产量影响较大的因素有粮食成灾面积、有效灌溉面积、化肥施用量3个变量。其次，Johansen协整检验阐释了这3个变量与粮食总产量之间的关系，并构造脉冲响应函数及进行方差分解得出这3个变量对总产量的贡献度为：粮食成灾面积〉化肥施用量〉有效灌溉面积。所以，增强农业工程的防灾减灾效果，提升农田水利基础设施的使用效率，科学控制化肥施用量对提高安徽省粮食综合生产能力具有重大作用。

An Empirical Study on Factors Influencing Anhui Grain Output Based on VAR Model

The factors influencing grain output include natural conditions, policy environment, economy factors, technology progress and so on. The paper selects seven factors based on the data from 1990--2012 in Anhui Province, and employs forward stepwise regression analysis to study the main factors influencing grain output. The result indicates that the inundated area of grain, the effective irrigation area and the chemical fertilizer significantly affect the grain output, the relationship between the three variables and the grain output is illustrated by Johansen test, and the contribution degrees are explained by constructing the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition methods. Therefore, to strengthen agricultural disaster prevention and reduction, to improve irrigation and water conservancy construction efficiently and to control the amount of chemical fertilizer scientifically have great impact on improving the overall grain production capability of Anhui Province.