安徽省建设用地年度供需平衡研究

随着工业化、城镇化步伐加快，安徽省经济社会快速发展，对建设用地需求量不断增加，资源环境约束也愈来愈紧，土地供需矛盾日益突出。如何在保护耕地的前提下，加快城镇化进程，缓解土地供需矛盾，是摆在各级政府及国土资源行政主管部门面前的一个重要挑战。结合社会经济实际，采用双因素数理模型对“十二五”建设用地需求量进行预测，依据上级规划和其他相关规定分析建设用地供给量，结果显示：安徽省建设用地呈现供不应求的态势。因此，要积极寻求建设用地供需平衡的路径和方法，为国土资源供需平衡政策工具的制定提供依据。

An Analysis of the Annual Balance between Supply and Demand of Construction Land in Anhui

With the acceleration of industrialization and urbanization, Anhui Province has experienced a rapid economic and social development in recent years, which has led to an ever-increasing demand for construction land, thereby making the restriction of resource and environment more and more serious and the conflict between the supply and demand of construction land more distinctive. Therefore, how to speed up the urbanization process and relieve the imbalance between supply and demand of land on the premise of protecting arable land is the challenge the land and resources departments of different levels are faced with. In this paper, we adopt the double-factor model to predict the demand of construction land in 12th Five-Year Plan based on the situation of Anhui Province＇s social economy. The result shows that construction land of Anhui Province appears to be behind the demand. Hence it is necessary to seek the approaches to balance the supply and demand of construction land and provide the basis for the government to formulate relevant policies.