Seasonal patterns of global oil consumption: Implications for long term energy policy |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Economics and Property, School of Economics and Finance, Curtin University, Bentley, 6102 WA, Australia;2. School of International Relations, Sun Yat-sen University, China;3. Western Australian School of Mines, School of Management, Curtin University, Perth, Australia;1. Economics Division, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK;2. University of Sannio, Italy;1. Department of Economics, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Osun State, Nigeria;2. Department of Economics, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria;1. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China;2. School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China;3. Beijing Key Lab of Energy Economics and Environmental Management, Beijing, 100081, China;4. School of Economics, Beijing Wuzi University, Beijing, 101149, China |
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| Abstract: | The dynamic evolution of the seasonal patterns in world oil consumption is dictated by complex interactions between regional consumers. Although this global pattern was stable and predictable in the past, recently it has undergone dramatic changes that have not been well understood yet. This paper contributes to literature on oil consumption behaviours by analysing the counter-balance of ‘coincident’ and ‘counter-directional’ regional seasonal patterns that have time-varying amplitude relative to their longer-term trends. It is shown that the recent global seasonal changes have been mainly driven by long-run demand trends in fast-growing emerging markets and, to a lesser extent, by idiosyncratic changes in regions’ seasonal amplitude. Our analysis is relevant to energy policy in general as both global and regional oil consumption seasonality have important implications for oil pricing, investment decisions, hedging, geopolitics and energy security. |
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| Keywords: | Seasonality Oil consumption Regional and global pattern Energy policy Discrete wavelet transformation |
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