Variations in age-specific homicide death rates: a cohort explanation for charges in the age distribution of homicide deaths

An age-period-cohort characteristic model previously used to explain age-period-specific rates of homicide arrests for those 15 to 49 from 1960 to 1995 is applied to measures of age-period-specific homicide deaths. The extension of this model to the examination of homicide victimization is significant because we are able to test the utility of the model across a longer time span (1930 to 1995) and a wider range of ages (10 to 79) and disaggregated by sex and race (Whites and non-Whites). Although the results indicate that past and recent shifts in age-period-specific rates of homicide deaths are associated with specific characteristics of cohorts, there are some important differences across race and sex groupings in the effects of these characteristics. The effects of the cohort variables examined in our model are independent of age and period, often substantively large, and last throughout the life course. The results are consistent with Durkheimian explanations of lethal violence, hypotheses from victimization theory, and basic tenets of cohort theory.