陕西省二氧化碳库兹涅茨曲线的形状、拐点与影响因素

以中国首批低碳试点地区——陕西省为研究对象,利用1978—2010年的时间序列数据,对人均二氧化碳排放的库兹涅茨曲线进行了经验估计,发现曲线形状为N型,两个拐点分别在人均GDP为3 370.31元和4 070.06元处。对影响人均二氧化碳排放的因素进行研究,利用迪式分解法进行短期分析,发现经济收入和能源消耗强度对人均二氧化碳的排放影响较大,而能源结构的影响很小;利用协整方程进行长期分析,结果表明,能源消耗强度、能源结构和第二产业结构对人均二氧化碳排放量的影响作用都比较大,其中最大的是能源结构。

Shape,Inflection Point and Factors of Carbon Kuznets Curve of Shaanxi Province

In the paper,we take Shaanxi Province,the first batch of low-carbon pilot areas in China,as the research object.Based on the time-series data from 1978 to 2010,we carried out the empirical estimation of per capita carbon dioxide environmental Kuznets curve,then we found that the shape of the curve is N-type,the two inflection points are 3 370.31 yuan and 4 070.06 yuan of GDP per capita.In addition,on one hand,we study the factors that have influence on the carbon dioxide emissions per capita,by using the LMDI(Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index) model to conduct the short-term analysis,we found that per capita income and energy consumption intensity have great impact on carbon dioxide emissions,however energy structure has little impact;on the other hand,by using cointegration equation to conduct long-term analysis,we found that energy consumption intensity,energy structure and the second industrial structure all have great impact on carbon dioxide emissions,of all,the largest is the energy structure.