随机模型在零售顾客未来经济价值估计中的应用

零售顾客的经济价值是由购买次数和平均购买金额共同决定的。本文采用NBD模型来拟合购买次数,用gamma-gamma模型来拟合平均购买金额。基于贝叶斯原理,在给定过去购买行为条件下我们可以计算顾客未来购买次数和平均购买金额的期望值,顾客的未来经济价值就是这两个期望值的乘积。本文应用上述随机模型对一家零售企业的顾客积分卡数据进行了实证分析,结果表明该模型不仅可以比较准确地拟合顾客购买次数和购买金额数据,而且可以对顾客未来价值进行较为准确的预测。该模型方法对于零售企业加强顾客分析,提高顾客管理水平有很大的价值。

The Application of Stochastic Models in the Estimation of Future Economic Value of Retail Customers

The economic value of retail customers is determined together by purchase frequency and monetary value. This article employs the NBD model to fit purchase frequency and the gamma-gamma model to fit the average monetary value. Based on the Bayes theorem we can calculate the expected future purchase frequency and average monetary value in a given customers fast purchase behavior,and the customer's future economic value is the multiplication of these two expected values. This article applied the above stodrastic models to fit empirically the frequent shopper card data of a retailer. The results show that the models not only can accurately fit the data of purchase frequency and monetary value,but also can accurately predict customers future economic value. The modeling method is of great value to retailers in enhancing customer analysis and improving customer management.